Private-market multiples, graded for how much you should trust them

Revenue and EBITDA multiple ranges by deal size across ten segments where private equity is currently active. Every range carries its own source grade and directional confidence — and you can log your own sightings against it.

Source grade

Confidence

High

Vertical B2B software sold into a single industry. Prices on ARR when growth exceeds ~15%, EBITDA when it does not.

Under $5M ARR

Early-stage / bootstrapped

Revenue multiple3x – 6x · typical 4x

AI premiumAI

Hatched zone = AI-monetized premium, roughly +1 to +3 turns above the top of the range.

12-mo rolling avg4.2x ▼ 8.2% vs 12 mo ago

Sep 25modeled, not observedAug 26

No EBITDA range at this size — these businesses are rarely profitable enough to price on earnings.

Typical buyers

Individual buyers, search funds, micro-PE

What moves price here

Founder dependency; rarely profitable enough to price on EBITDA.

$5M-$10M ARR

Provable business

Revenue multiple4x – 8x · typical 6x

AI premiumAI

Hatched zone = AI-monetized premium, roughly +1 to +3 turns above the top of the range.

12-mo rolling avg6.2x ▼ 6.4% vs 12 mo ago

Sep 25modeled, not observedAug 26

EBITDA multiple8x – 11x · typical 9.5x

AI premiumAI

Hatched zone = AI-monetized premium, roughly +1 to +3 turns above the top of the range.

12-mo rolling avg9.9x ▼ 8.5% vs 12 mo ago

Sep 25modeled, not observedAug 26

Typical buyers

Lower middle-market PE begins to look

What moves price here

NRR quality; whether growth survives a management change.

$10M-$25M ARR

Institutional LMM sweet spot

Revenue multiple5x – 10x · typical 7x

AI premiumAI

Hatched zone = AI-monetized premium, roughly +1 to +3 turns above the top of the range.

12-mo rolling avg7.4x ▼ 8.3% vs 12 mo ago

Sep 25modeled, not observedAug 26

EBITDA multiple10x – 15x · typical 12x

AI premiumAI

Hatched zone = AI-monetized premium, roughly +1 to +3 turns above the top of the range.

12-mo rolling avg12.6x ▼ 9.6% vs 12 mo ago

Sep 25modeled, not observedAug 26

Typical buyers

Established LMM PE (Kinderhook, Mainsail, K1-type)

What moves price here

Most competitive band — process and clean cohort data move price most.

$25M-$50M ARR

Scaled platform

Revenue multiple6x – 12x · typical 9x

AI premiumAI

Hatched zone = AI-monetized premium, roughly +1 to +3 turns above the top of the range.

12-mo rolling avg9.5x ▼ 8.1% vs 12 mo ago

Sep 25modeled, not observedAug 26

EBITDA multiple12x – 18x · typical 14x

AI premiumAI

Hatched zone = AI-monetized premium, roughly +1 to +3 turns above the top of the range.

12-mo rolling avg14.5x ▼ 7.4% vs 12 mo ago

Sep 25modeled, not observedAug 26

Typical buyers

Mid-market PE, strategic acquirers

What moves price here

Category leadership and Rule of 40 start mattering more than raw growth.

$50M+ ARR

Category leader

Revenue multiple8x – 20x · typical 12x

AI premiumAI

Hatched zone = AI-monetized premium, roughly +1 to +3 turns above the top of the range.

12-mo rolling avg12.2x ▼ 7.6% vs 12 mo ago

Sep 25modeled, not observedAug 26

EBITDA multiple15x – 25x · typical 18x

AI premiumAI

Hatched zone = AI-monetized premium, roughly +1 to +3 turns above the top of the range.

12-mo rolling avg18.7x ▼ 7.3% vs 12 mo ago

Sep 25modeled, not observedAug 26

Typical buyers

Large-cap PE, public strategics, take-privates

What moves price here

AI narrative and strategic scarcity can push well outside this range.

Size bands for Vertical SaaS